Dangote Boosts Daily Fuel Supply Ahead of Festive Demand Surge

In late 2025, Dangote Refinery announced a major boost in petrol (PMS) production, committing to supply 1.5 billion litres monthly, about 50 million litres per day, from December 2025. Output is expected to rise further to 1.7 billion litres per month (≈ 57 million litres/day) by February 2026.

The company told the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) that the ramp-up is aimed at meeting national demand during the festive season and countering doubts about the capacity of domestic refineries.

This scale-up aligns with earlier performance figures that placed the refinery at over 30 million litres/day earlier in 2025, roughly 85% utilisation. If sustained, the increased output could cover a significant share, potentially all, of Nigeria’s PMS demand.

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Why It Matters

Greater domestic refining capacity could sharply reduce Nigeria’s reliance on petrol imports, easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and shielding the economy from global supply shocks. With a 650,000bpd capacity, the refinery can theoretically meet national fuel needs and still export surplus.

Improved petrol availability may also stabilise pump prices and reduce the recurrence of fuel shortages and queues. A reliable daily supply of 50–57 million litres would match Nigeria’s consumption levels, strengthening supply consistency.

The shift may reshape the downstream market as import-dependent marketers face declining demand. Increased local supply could spur new refining investments, improve energy security, and deepen competition across the value chain.

The Reality Check

Despite the ambitious projections, recent NMDPRA data shows that between October 2024 and October 2025, the refinery supplied an average of 18.03 million litres/day—far below its earlier targets. Meanwhile, national petrol consumption has risen to 56.7 million litres/day, forcing continued reliance on imports.
This gap has renewed concerns about the ability of domestic refineries to meet full demand. Critics point to crude allocation challenges, logistical constraints, fluctuating output promises, and downstream inefficiencies as barriers to consistent supply.

What to Watch

The December 2025 supply pledge is significant, but its success will depend on daily consistency, stronger distribution networks, timely crude/feedstock availability, and transparent verification of output. Dangote has invited NMDPRA to monitor and publish daily production data.

If the refinery delivers sustained volumes, Nigeria could move closer to energy self-reliance, reduced import bills, and improved petrol stability. If not, supply gaps may persist and skepticism about domestic refining capacity will deepen.